Varning för svenska småbolag

Ovan ser ni OMXS30 (röd linje) och small cap (svart linje). Stora bolag mot småbolag alltså. Sedan 2010 kan vi se att de två indexen följt varandra men sedan i mitten av förra året har det hänt något och småbolag har stuckit iväg. Det sannolika är att indexen kommer att närma sig varandra.

Hur ser då risken ut? Det vanligaste sättet att mäta risk i aktier är att använda sig av P/E-tal. D v s priset på aktien dividerat med vinsten. Om en aktie har ett P/E-tal på 15 innebär det alltså att du ska äga aktien i 15 år för att bolaget ska tjäna in de pengar du har betalat. Under IT-yran såg vi sjuka P/E-tal. Yahoo stoltserade med ett P/E på 1900.

P/E-tal beräknas på lite olika sätt. Det vanligaste är att man använder sig av ”forward”, d v s vinsten som bolaget prognosticerat kommande 12 månader. ”Trailing” innebär att man använder den faktiska vinsten 12 månader tillbaka i tiden.

I det här fallet har jag tagit bort bolag som har ett negativt resultat och inte tagit hänsyn till börsvärde. Oavsett förenklingen är bilden tydlig – risken i småbolag nästan tre gånger större än i storbolag och dubbelt så hög som mellanstora bolag.

När P/E-talen går upp så börjar det snackas en hel del om börsras. Nu är den stora majoriteten av alla ekonomiska indikatorer och statistik överlag väldigt positiva. Så fundamentalt finns det inga tecken på stora börsfall. Dessutom är räntan historiskt extremt låg vilket gör att det inte finns bra alternativ till aktier. Det sannolika är då istället att det sker korrigeringar inom tillgångslaget aktier. Investerarna viktar om inom aktieportföljen och väljer istället ”tryggare” bolag.

Just detta har vi sett i USA.

 

Den blå linjen är Russel 2000, d v s småbolag, och den gröna S& P500. Som ni ser följer de varandra men i april hände något. Återigen är det fråga om en anomali. I det här fallet var det motsatta förhållandet till Sverige.

”A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends”

Warren Buffet

Kommentarer

Hm, kanske skall byta ut min småbolagsfond.
Tack för en bra blogg förresten.
/E

Bild för Patric Holmberg

Är man lång i Sverige så finns det som sagt skäl för en omviktning från small cap till large cap.

Ska man helt kliva ur aktier? De argument som florerar nu är att P/E-talen är höga och att börserna nått rekordnivåer. Det är i sig inga argument. Ken Fisher visade i en enkelt statistisk studie att det inte finns några uppenbara samband mellan P/E-tal och börsnedångar. 68% av alla börsnedgångar med mer än 10% skedde året efter ett P/E-tal på mindre än 16. Gårdagens blogg handlade istället om anomalin som uppstått mellan små- och storbolag.

Skulle det komma ett större fall i närtid kommer det antingen bero på någon större extern faktor, typ en omfattande militär konflikt, eller en ren börspsykologisk trigger. Man börjar titta högar/vänster och vill inte själv sitta kvar på köpsidan. Jag väljer att vara positiv och tror att 2014 blir ett bra år men med en hel del rörelser under året.

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